fernando torres

Showing posts with label Betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Betting. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Football Miracle Review - What Does This Football Betting Software Do?

A professional sports bettor has just released a piece of software called the Football Miracle, which supposedly picks winning football bets for you. This software uses a selection system that qualifies every match for you, telling you whether you should bet on it. Before you try out this system, you should decide if football betting is right for.

1. Is Football Betting For You?

Like any form of betting or investments, football betting also contains big and small risks. The most important thing is that you should have a system to help you understand and limit the risks. This is what Football Miracle can do, since it helps you analyze team factors to help you choose matches to bet on.

2. Take Note Of Picks, But Don't Trust Them Completely

Picks are predictions made by so called experts in football. It is certainly worth listening to them, since you can deduce how the general public will bet since many people listen and follow experts.

3. Knowing The Game

Before you bet on football, you will want to understand the factors that greatly influence the outcome of football matches. It is also necessary that you understand all the rules and regulations of the game.

4. The Most Significant Football Statistic

Probably the most important statistic that every football statistic that every bettor should know is that out of all matches, around 48% are Home Wins, 27% are Drawn and 25% are Away Wins. This shows that home advantage is one of the most significant factors that needs to be analyzed.

If you are looking at 2 equally matched teams, you must take into account their home and away win percentages. This is one of the facts that Football Miracle takes into account.

5. Football Miracle System

To be able to win regularly from football betting, you need to analyze the most factors whether a team wins or not, and this is what the Football Miracle Software is able to do.

Saturday, June 5, 2010

Are You Looking For Some Football Betting Tips? Here is One You Should Definitely Consider

If you are looking for some football betting tips then you have come to the right place. There are definitely a few football betting tips you should consider seriously using if you are serious about winning. Sometimes you may not be serious about winning, but you may be serious about making money doing this. This may not make sense to some people, but if you are professional bettor your goal is to make money, not necessarily win a lot of bets.

You do this by knowing which side to be on and which side offers the most value more often than not. Sometimes you win more games than you lose and still end up losing money, and this isn't what you want if you are serious about being a football bettor. So this article I'm going to give you a simple tip you can start using now to help you have more success with your football picks.

You want to take a little bit of time to study what type of current form and direction your particular football team is in.

One of the best football betting tips I can give you is to look into the current condition and emotional state of the particular football team. Sometimes a team may be coming off of a crushing loss and they may be very pumped up to play today in order to bounce back. Sometimes you may have a football team coming off a very emotional win; if this is the case they may come out and perform very deflated the next week because of all of that emotion. Always take into account these things if you hope to be successful in the long run with your football picks.

You want to look into why certain losses occurred in a particular football teams past performance.

Even if a particular team has a bad loss record, if you have a quick look into that teams past you may find some of those losses were very close. You may even find some of the goals were very controversial. What this means is a particular team may not be as bad as they look in the win / loss column. A couple of calls here and a lucky break there, and they would have a much better win record than they do now.

Once you're able to successfully discover such things you'll find it much easier to make profitable football betting tips. This is one of the better football betting tips, and it is one you should always consider if you are serious about being a successful football bettor. You may also discover the opposite is true, a particular team may have a lot of wins but many of these wins could have come against poor quality opposition.

This team may have had a lot of lucky breaks thrown their way and as a result they have a superior win record. When you're doing your research if you discover this you may have a match which spells upset and could be very profitable.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Simple NFL Betting Systems #49 - the Super-Bowl Effect

After studying and cataloging hundreds of different NFL situational trends over the past decade or-so, I have learned that there are really only 3 distinct types of situations that effectively beat the spread. They each have the ability to expose opportunities for profit versus the line--they just do so in very different ways.

The first and most common category (which accounts for the majority of situations that I employ) covers situations that are based on mathematical measurements of specific areas of team play, which work towards revealing instances where one side may have an advantage over another after the point spread is factored in. Examples of this would include trends based primarily on Rush Offense Ratings, Team Momentum Indicators, or any other statistical measurement of team skill.

The 2nd group involves situations that isolate instances where the betting public is way off with their assessment of team strength and an opportunity for profit based on the resulting 'skewed' line may be present. Many of these situations work their magic in the early part of the season, when bettors are still placing wagers based on what teams did last season, as opposed to what they are exhibiting in the first few weeks of the current season.

The 3rd and final category of situations that I employ can be classed as 'let-down' or 'momentum' situations and this is where my degree in 'Armchair Psychology', as I like to call it, comes in handy.

'Momentum' is both a catch-all phrase and sports cliché that has been so overused in the past few decades, it's hard to give it much credence, especially considering that 99% of the time the term is trotted out (most commonly as part of the mindless on-air commentary of network-TV NFL broadcasts), the team that has been pegged as having the 'so-called' edge in momentum, is in fact, no more likely to cover the spread than their opponent.

The overuse and 'dumbing down' of terms such as 'momentum' and it's polar opposite: the 'let-down' situation, does obscure the fact that there are still many proven situations that exist in the NFL where teams may be in a position to build on a recent positive event, or, perhaps not give forth their best effort due to certain factors working against them.

This category of situations should come with a prominent warning label though--trends based on 'Armchair Psychology' are actually the hardest to prove through subjective analysis and bettors who handicap games purely on the basis of these types of situations can find themselves on a slippery slope indeed.

The important lesson here is that even the most logical-sounding situations that may have had success in the past (one that comes to mind concerns teams facing an inferior non-divisional opponent at home in a game that is sandwiched in between 2 divisional road meetings), may still simply be the product of chance alone, or a combination of luck and many other factors that have nothing to do with the logic of the specific situation itself.

Despite the potential pitfalls involved with 'Category 3' trends, I do still utilize a wide assortment of them on a weekly basis. With this category, I always strive to use only 2-4 Primary conditions and not too many 'tighteners' (Secondary conditions). The KISS approach seems to provide the best chance of future success when working with these highly subjective trends.

It should come as no surprise then, that the particular situation I would like to look at for this article is very simple in nature (this is a 'Simple Systems' article, after all). Its premise is built on how teams perform in an upcoming game, when they happen to be facing the defending Super-Bowl winner in the game immediately after.

It's not uncommon for teams to look beyond their current opponent in certain circumstances, especially if they are a team with a winning record that may be looking to make a statement versus last years champion.

When we take the above Primary condition and add in the stipulation that the current opponent is coming off a Clutch Win (a Clutch win occurs when a team tallies the final score of the game, in either the 4th quarter or overtime, moving them from a tied or losing position, into a winning one), we are left with a system that has produced a record of 2-17 ATS for the team in question since 1994.

All the details for this system are listed below. You will notice that it does play on winning teams more often than not (57.1% of the time) and has involved 16 different teams since 1994--which is excellent when you consider that only just over 20 games have met its criteria (this includes 'pushes' which are not shown in the overall record of 2-17 ATS).

(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative--weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

System #49 Summary (Last Updated: Jan 15th, 2008)

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Team is playing Last Seasons Super-Bowl winner in their Next Game.
2) Current Opponent is coming off a Clutch Win.

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) None.

System Stats
ASMR: -2.5
Home%: 57.1
Dog%: 38.1
TDIS%: 50.0
WT%: 57.1
SPR: -0.38
Top Teams: MIA(3); ATL(2); IND(2); NYG(2)

System Records
Overall (Since '94): 2-17 ATS
2007 Season: 0-0 ATS
2006 Season: 0-2 ATS
2005 Season: 0-1 ATS
2004 Season: 0-1 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2006 WK12--DAL 38 TB 10 (DAL -11) W
2006 WK4--BAL 16 SD 13 (BAL +2.5) W
2005 WK9--CHI 20 NO 17 (CHI -3) P

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Betting the Halftime Line in Football

We have found that betting the halftime lines of a NFL game is very profitable if done right. There are several things you must do to put the odds in your favor. The first and most important thing is research the game before it starts. We recommend not betting the start of the game. If you have a play at the beginning of the game then it is strong enough to warrant it and a halftime play is not usually needed. Anyway, study the game before it starts. Get an Idea how the game will play out. Know the injuries to start the game. I usually try to predict the first half results. Lastly, know the starting line and total. Divide it by 2 and have the numbers written down also.

Watch the first half of the game closely and pay attention to the injuries. Of course if there is a significant injury this will indicate a major change for the second half. A lot of times the not so significant injuries are the most important. Say for instance both Defensive Backs on a team got beat up and one is out. This gives the opposing team a big advantage and especially if they are a throwing team. Also this last type of injury may not be reflected in the halftime line.

Another thing to watch is the turnovers and how they affect the first half. This is a little tricky because turnovers can affect the score and sometimes not. For instance if a game you predict to go over is way under at halftime was it because of turnovers deep in the other teams territory. The same works the other way, if a game is way over and you picked it to go under but a couple interceptions or fumbles were returned for touchdowns put it over. In both these situations your original bet of over or under is the right pick in the second half because it is very unusual to have that many turnovers again.

The score is another factor in second half betting. If there is a blowout in the first half, this can greatly affect the second half bet. Most teams do not run up the score on other teams and play their reserves. A lot of times you are betting on the reserves of the leading team against the first string of the losing team. In the fourth quarter there is a good chance both teams will have their second string in.

The last thing to take into affect is the weather and field conditions. This also is a double edged sword. If you see the weather getting worse as the game goes on then you have to bet accordingly. This is also true if the weather is getting better and the field is in good condition. Then weather may not be a factor but the line may reflect it is. In this case there may be a low under but you know the players are not slipping and will be able to score.

I have given you many things to look for at half to tilt the odds in your favor. A lot of times the scenarios listed above do not happen or are minor enough to let you to bet the second half depending on your prediction before the game. If your predictions are correct great make you bet. If you predicted the game wrong make your adjustment and bet accordingly. Always remember that if you are not confident in the second half bet do not make it. The point is to get odds in your favor and if they are not, lay off this time.